By Paul Berry
Jacksonville is increasingly recognized as an outstanding place to live, work and build a business. Its multifamily sector, while recently challenged by a wave of new supply, is set for a rebound that will reward patient investors. With peak deliveries now in the rearview mirror, the metro area is well positioned for a strong cyclical upswing, complementing its already robust economic trajectory.
Core Drivers: Population Growth, Pro-Business
Jacksonville is a legitimate, big-league city. The population of the metro area has reached 1.76 million, growing by about 37,000 per year. The NFL recognized this potential early on, making Jacksonville one of just four expansion cities in the past half century. That endorsement has proved prescient: Jacksonville today is vibrant, fast-growing and increasingly comparable to higher-profile Sun Belt peers such as Miami, Atlanta, Nashville and Charlotte.
Jacksonville’s momentum and appeal are underpinned by three key features: top-tier population and job growth, a pro-business climate and a superior quality of life. As the northernmost large metro in Florida, Jacksonville benefits directly from the decades-long household migration from the Northeast and Midwest to the Sun Belt.
The pandemic accelerated this trend, giving remote workers the freedom to choose lifestyle over legacy locations. From mid-2020 to mid-2024, Florida added more than 870,000 in-migrants, the most of any state. Top departure points included New York, New Jersey, Pennsylvania, Illinois and California. For many, Jacksonville has been the ideal landing spot.
The reasons for relocations are easy to see. Among Atlantic Ocean coastal metros, Jacksonville and Hampton Roads, Virginia, are the only cities between New York and Miami — a 1,300-mile stretch — with more than one million people.
From an economic and lifestyle perspective, Jacksonville presents the optimal relocation “sweet spot” along that journey, offering a diversified city with a low cost of living. Inbound transplants from the Northeast often enjoy an immediate 20 to 60 percent boost in purchasing power. South of Jacksonville, consumers begin to see their cost of living increase. According to data from the U.S. Census Bureau, groceries, utilities and transportation cost 6 to 16 percent more in Miami.
As a relocation bonus, Florida’s zero state income tax creates a meaningful boost to disposable income via elimination of the 5 to 15 percent levies found in those departure states.
And then there’s the weather. Jacksonville retains four seasons, but winters are mild. While January highs in the Northeast hover around 36 to 39 degrees, Jacksonville averages 65 degrees with more than 220 sunny days annually. And for those fans of sunshine, a mid-December sunset in Boston happens just after 4 p.m., whereas Jacksonville’s is nearly 5:30 p.m. The prospect of playing golf or walking along Jacksonville Beach throughout the wintertime presents a powerful draw, especially if the alternative is shoveling snow in the twilight up north.
Diverse Economy Delivers Healthy Job Growth
Jacksonville’s economy is booming and diverse. In the past year, the metro area added 9,700 jobs (a 1.4 percent increase), outpacing the U.S. rate of 1.1 percent, according to FloridaCommerce.
Jacksonville’s rising visibility is winning important accolades that keep feeding growth. The Wall Street Journal ranked Jacksonville the second-hottest job market in America in a 2024 analysis. The U.S. Census Bureau listed it as the fourth-fastest-growing U.S. city between July 2022 and July 2023. These are just a few of Jacksonville’s many recent acknowledgements.
Sophisticated companies are also taking note. Jacksonville is home to four Fortune 500 headquarters — CSX, Fidelity National Financial, Fidelity National Information Services (FIS) and Southeastern Grocers (Winn-Dixie). Banking operations by Deutsche Bank and BOA Merrill Lynch further highlight Jacksonville’s status as a rising financial hub.
The medical sector is Jacksonville’s top job creator, adding 6,200 jobs last year. The sector accounted for 106,600 positions as of 2023. Mayo Clinic Jacksonville ranked No. 1 in Florida by U.S. News & World Report in July 2025. These rankings measure patient outcomes and experiences. The hospital employs 10,000 staff, serves 175,000 patients annually and is undergoing a $432 million expansion.
Jacksonville’s direct Atlantic Ocean access underpins its maritime prominence. Its main commercial port, Jaxport, handled 1.3 million twenty-foot equivalent units (TEUs) in 2024, ranking the port 10th in the United States by TEU volume and first in the state, according to the U.S. Department of Transportation’s Bureau of Transportation Statistics.
Jaxport supports 28,000 jobs, and Naval Air Station Jacksonville alone supports 23,000 jobs. Tourism is also significant: 207,000 cruise passengers came through the port in 2024, contributing to Jacksonville’s $4.1 billion in tourism revenue that supports 56,000 jobs.
Jacksonville residents’ quality of life is further enhanced by its location, availability of leisure and entertainment activities and its impressive reinvestment in facilities and infrastructure. Metro Jacksonville has 63 miles of pristine, welcoming beaches. In the south part of the metropolitan statistical area, historic St. Augustine is America’s oldest city, founded in 1565. Meticulously preserved, it offers a unique historic draw.
The University of Florida is constructing a $300 million graduate campus in downtown Jacksonville that is slated to open in 2026 and is set to serve 1,500 students by 2030. The Jacksonville Jaguars are executing a $1.4 billion stadium renovation, scheduled for completion in 2028. (The Jaguars will play their 2027 season in Orlando.) These are just a sampling of notable projects around the metro area.
Multifamily Development Wave Dissipates
Population and job growth inevitably spur housing demand. Before the pandemic, Jacksonville averaged approximately 1,900 apartment starts and deliveries annually. Starts spiked to 11,110 in 2022, before easing to 6,916 in 2023. In 2024, that figure was 2,403, and as of October 2025, developers have completed 2,817 units.
Deliveries lagged but were even higher: 6,269 in 2022, 8,638 in 2023; 9,736 in 2024; and 3,152 as of October 2025. In total, 33,557 units (26 percent) have been added since 2020, lifting the inventory to 127,000 units. Fortunately for owners, starts have now fallen 65 percent, signaling a delivery pace under 2,600 units by late 2025.
Renter demand is strong, and it is rising. Absorption hit 3,340 units in 2023 and a record 7,835 in 2024. In the first quarter of 2025 alone, 4,387 units were absorbed, exceeding deliveries by more than 1,200. Balance is returning, though full recovery will take time.
Occupancy historically ranged 94 to 96 percent following the 2008 financial crisis but fell as new supply outpaced demand, eroding occupancy to its current level of 94.2 percent as of September. This is below the U.S. average of 94.5 percent. Effective rents, which peaked at $1,520 in early 2023, have declined to $1,480 today given the oversupply. Class A properties are stronger at $1,731.
Cyclical Bottom Presents Opportunities
For investors, today’s low occupancy and rents could at first seem to be unfavorable vital signs. But in reality, they represent an ideal contrarian entry point. The market is bottoming and poised for a solid rebound.
Meanwhile, current acquisition prices are a function of in-place rents and occupancy and are mostly below replacement cost. For buyers of stabilized properties, this discount creates an economic buffer relative to future new development.
Jacksonville’s low rents and reduced occupancy also create helpful operating leverage for the rebound compared with markets with higher rents and higher occupancy. Operating leverage from subpar metrics magnifies net operating income (NOI) gains (and appreciation) delivered by even modest rent and occupancy increases since operating expenses are largely fixed and more of the gains become income.
Meanwhile, Jacksonville’s rent growth has room to grow owing to the fact that rents are affordable. At $1,480 per month, current average market rents translate to less than 22 percent of the area median household income (AMI) of $80,300. Typical industry metrics suggest a 30 percent rent-to-income ratio is when household finances start becoming rent burdened.
By this analysis, typical Jacksonville renters could afford rents $525 per month higher before reaching that 30 percent threshold. That would be a 35 percent rent increase from current rates. While rent escalations of that magnitude are not projected to happen over just a few years, the existence of rent-growth headroom is a positive for Jacksonville investors and distinguishes the city from others currently nearing or above their own 30 percent levels.
Conditions in Jacksonville appear ideal for timely contrarian acquisitions, but the actual purchases of properties require willing sellers. Seller reluctance has led to diminished transaction volume in Jacksonville as well as throughout the country. For perspective, Jacksonville averaged $1.1 billion in annual multifamily sales between 2011 and 2020, then surged to $3.3 billion in 2021 before sliding to $2.4 billion in 2022, $845 million in 2023–2024, and just $584 million as of October 2025.
Same-store prices are still down nationally approximately 19 percent from the 2022 peak with a similar discount in Jacksonville. Given the anticipation of performance and rebound in property values, many owners have been holding versus selling, hoping to recapture declines. With the growing inventory of properties now being held well beyond intended exits, expect lenders and capital partners to begin applying pressure to sell, even with the rebound in sight. Anticipate stronger sales activity in metro Jacksonville and across the United States in 2026.
Jacksonville’s story is not just one of resilience. It is one of sustained momentum. And for multifamily investors willing to look beyond short-term turbulence, the metro area promises returns as bright as its sunny skies.
Paul Berry is president and COO of Mesa Capital Partners.
Notable Apartment Sales Across Jacksonville Market Over the Past Year
Jacksonville’s multifamily market is comprised of 11 submarkets. The Southside is the largest, with 50,780 units (40 percent of supply). Net absorption in metro Jacksonville through the first three quarters of 2025 was 1,630 units. Meanwhile, the occupancy rate was 92.8 percent, and the average effective rent stood at $1,563.
Other major submarkets include Arlington (22,644 units, $1,371 average effective rent), West Side (11,878 units, $1,373 average effective rent), and St. Augustine (10,182 units, $1,797 average effective rent). Currently, active developers include Thompson Thrift, RISE and Hillpointe, each with two projects underway.
Despite a low volume in sales volume overall, the market is experiencing some transaction activity. In the past year, 52 properties traded, including:
- Pointe at Tamaya (380 units, Arlington): Passco Cos. LLC to The Michelson Organization for $81.6 million ($215,000 per unit) in December 2024.
- Volta (337 units, Deercreek): Catalyst Development Partners to Fitzwalter Capital for a reported $60.7 million ($180,000 per unit) in May 2025.
- Eight Winds (280 units, St. Augustine): Altis Cardinal to DeBartolo Development LLC for a reported $59 million ($211,000 per unit) in February 2025.
- The Julington (260 units, Mandarin): RISE Properties to Mesa Capital Partners for $59.5 million ($229,000 per unit) in June.
Jacksonville offers a rare combination of affordability, sustained growth and quality of life that appeals to both residents and investors. The metro area’s economy is broadening, its population continues to swell, and its reputation is steadily rising among peer metros.
While the recent development surge weighed on occupancy and rents, strong absorption, affordability and limited future deliveries point to a sharp rebound. For investors, today’s reduced prices — reflecting temporary softness — provide a timely, contrarian opportunity to enter a market with durable fundamentals and long-term upside.
— Paul Berry